疫苗策略与监测专题

安徽省宿松县2019—2024年水痘流行病学特征及时空聚集性

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  • 安徽省宿松县疾病预防控制中心,安庆 246500

网络出版日期: 2026-06-10

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal cluster of varicella in Susong County of Anhui Province from 2019 to 2024

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  • Anhui Province Susong County Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Anqing 246500,China

Online published: 2026-06-10

摘要

目的 分析2019—2024年宿松县水痘流行病学及时空分布特征,为水痘监测和预防控制提供科学依据。方法 从中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集宿松县2019年1月1日至2024年12月31日报告的水痘病例个案数据,采用描述性流行病学方法分析其流行病学特征(时间、人群、地区分布),利用SaTScan 10.1软件,采用回顾性时空扫描统计(回顾性时空重排扫描统计法)识别水痘发病的时空聚集区(扫描单位:乡镇;时间分辨率:月)。结果 2019—2024年宿松县共报告水痘病例1 091例,年报告发病率波动在14.23/10万至35.39/10万之间,年均为21.06/10万,年发病报告率呈现显著的波动下降趋势(趋势采用卡方检验,χ² = 28.76,P<0.01);发病呈现双峰季节性,主高峰在10月至次年1月(秋冬季),次高峰在5月至7月(春末夏初);时空扫描分析识别出4个具有统计学意义(P<0.05)的时空聚类,覆盖全县10个乡镇,高发地区主要集中在县域中北部,以城关的孚玉镇及周边乡镇为主;男性病例(n=615,占比56.37%)多于女性(n=476,占比43.63%);病例主要集中于儿童和青少年(<15岁,占比65.54%),其中5~9岁组病例占比最高(30.26%),其次为10~14岁组(23.46%);职业分布方面,在校学生占比最高(n=723,66.27%),其次为托幼儿童;78.00%的病例无水痘疫苗免疫史。结论 2019—2024年间,宿松县水痘报告发病率呈现显著下降趋势,在校学生高发,发病存在时空聚集性。为进一步控制水痘疫情,建议持续加强水痘疫情监测,重点做好学校和托幼机构的聚集性疫情防控;同时落实并提高2剂次水痘疫苗接种覆盖率,优先覆盖适龄儿童及既往无免疫史人群。

本文引用格式

黄小凤, 储小翠, 齐青, 张峻, 陈耀平 . 安徽省宿松县2019—2024年水痘流行病学特征及时空聚集性[J]. 国际生物制品学杂志, 2026 , 49(3) : 161 -167 . DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn311962-20250716-00052

Abstract

Objective To analyze the epidemiological and spatio-temporal characteristics of varicella in Susong County from 2019 to 2024, in order to provide scientific basis for varicella surveillance, prevention and control.Methods Case data of varicella reported in Susong County from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2024 were obtained from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System . Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics (temporal, population, and geographical distribution). SaTScan software (version 10.1) was employed to perform retrospective space-time scan statistics, with township as geographical unit and month as time unit, to identify spatio-temporal clusters of varicella incidence.Results A total of 1 091 varicella cases were reported in Susong County from 2019 to 2024. The annual reported incidence rate fluctuated between 14.23/100 000 and 35.39/100 000, with average annual incidence rate at 21.06/100 000. Based on chi-squared test for trend, a significant decreasing trend in the annual reported incidence was observed (χ² = 28.76, P < 0.01). The incidence exhibited a bimodal seasonal pattern, with primary peak occurring from October to January (autumn and winter) and secondary peak from May to July (late spring and early summer). Spatio-temporal scan analysis identified 4 statistically significant clusters (P<0.05), covering 10 townships. High-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the central and northern parts of the county, particularly in townships surrounding the central Fuyu Town. More cases were male (n=615, 56.37%) than female (n=476, 43.63%). Cases were predominantly observed in children and adolescents (<15 years old, 64.54%), with the highest incidence in the 5-9 age group (30.26%), followed by the 10-14 age group (23.46%). By occupation, students constituted the majority of cases (n=723,66.27%), followed by preschool children. A significant portion of the cases (78.00%) had no history of varicella vaccination.Conclusions From 2019 to 2024, the reported incidence of varicella in Susong County shows a significant declining trend. Students are the most affected population, and the disease distribution exhibits spatio-temporal clustering. To further control varicella outbreaks, it is recommended to continuously strengthen varicella surveillance, with a particular focus on cluster outbreaks in schools and childcare institutions, and to implement and improve the coverage of the 2-dose varicella vaccine schedule, especially for age-appropriate children and individuals with no prior immunization history.
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